I started really thinking about this last night as we recorded the Simple Mobile Review Podcast. I am really starting to believe that if a major hardware manufacturer (read HP, Dell, Lenovo, etc.) releases a tablet that runs Android and doesn’t suck by Thanksgiving, they will have a real chance at taking on the iPad.
I know that the iPad has already sold over 2 million units and should sell 3 million units worldwide this quarter, however, contrary to popular belief, the iPad is not the perfect device. The iPad is expensive, it doesn’t replace anything, it’s locked down tighter than Fort Knox, and Apple’s business practices have developer’s cheering for a competitor to step in and really challenge Apple’s dominance.
The iPad is expensive
Even though the iPad is cheaper than we thought it would be when it was first announced, it does a lot less than we thought it would do when it was first rumored. I think, if honest, the overwhelming majority of iPad owners would be hard pressed to tell you that they need their iPad. They most certainly want them. They just don’t need them.
The expense of the iPad and the fact that it is more of a desired device as compared to a necessary one make it a luxury item. I know that this is, sort of, is Apple business model, however luxury items, by their very nature, are niche items. Niche items don’t tend to dominate, which, of course, is why they are niche. The perfect example of this is the Mac.
The iPad doesn’t replace anything
I’ll be the first to admit that it is not necessary for every new platform, idea, technology, or whatever you want to call the iPad to actually replace something that already exists. The iPad, however, is so close in function to netbooks, laptops, and even the iPod Touch, that I don’t believe it is afforded this exception. The only existing devices that the iPad effectively replaces are e-readers, and, because the iPad has a back light, the debate is still out on even how well a job it does in that arena.
If you need a laptop and buy an iPad, you definitely still need your laptop. If you need a netbook and buy and iPad, you probably still need your netbook. If you own an iPod Touch, and buy and iPad, you clearly just wanted one.
The iPad is closed
Clearly you can be successful with a closed platform. Apple has mastered this, however, they’ve done so with personal consumer electronics like the iPod, iPhone, and iPod Touch. The game changes as your devices get bigger, and start to look and act more like computers. It will take a competitor with legs to flush this out, but, I believe this could be the case with the iPad.
When consumers buy computers, 90% or more buy them for what they can do with the software that runs on them. Many will have issues when their choice of software is not controlled by them, but, by the manufacturer of the hardware, especially if the same software is available on an alternative platform that doesn’t dictate what you can do with your hardware.
Developers are itching for an alternative
Developers write code for a multitude of reasons. Some solve critical business issues, some provide entertainment, some for no good reason whatsoever. Up until recently developers where subject to the market. So long as there was a customer for your app, you could develop said app and attempt to sell it.
Distributors and resellers may have refused to sell your app. They may have even told you that your app should not exist. They never, however, told you that your app could not exist or be sold independently of the hardware manufacture, unless you were willing to void your warranty, often times for arbitrary reasons after they initially allowed the app. Apple regularly makes judgments for iPad users telling them what software is and is not allowed to exist.
Why An Android Tablet Has A Real Shot At Taking On The iPad
I haven’t talked about Android at all up until this point of this post, quite honestly because this post is more about the iPad than it is about Android. I name an Android powered tablet specifically, however, because Apple has tremendous momentum on it’s side. Android, as well, has a lot of momentum, is well known, and rocks as a mobile OS. Android is Open Source, has Google’s resources behind it, and most definitely has the legs to give the iPad a run. I just hope that a big gadget maker can get an Android Tablet out soon enough to actually run in the race…
This isn’t often, but I have to disagree with you on this one. I think the iPad actually hits an area/gap that many, like myself, have been looking for. I can actually pump out some emails, lighten my load while traveling (no books for reading) and it substitutes for my laptop for those moments I want to go online, but not have to boot up. It also gives my heavily overworked and abused MBP a rest for a couple of hours while I browse the web on the Pad (from a monetary standpoint, provides a little bit longer lifespan for my MBP regarding usage). I’m not too concerned with cost since it will save my close to 50% on book purchases, canceled my newspaper subscriptions, extend the life of my laptop, and for me personally, has replaced my iTouch. The ROI in the long run will pay for itself. The device isn’t for everything or everyone, but it’s certainly hit a gap and I’m sure it will improve over time (lets keep in mind it’s still a first generation product).
As for Android giving Apple a run, I’d love to see it. I still, to this day, believe that Apple has the best approach to the OS structure (I love webOS, but curious as to what HP is going to do with it) and their dictatorship over programs and applications is fine by me…their grip on the laptop has made me a user without issues or complaints. Android has the momentum, but I’d like to see how Google controls the OS. If the environment is too open, it makes it that much more difficult to create the updates and push them out in a timely fashion. HTC, Motorola, etc. all have their flavors sitting on top of Android, which ultimately delays the updates.
The Android OS still needs work (as does any OS), but it certainly has potential in the marketplace the iPad is in. But ultimately, I’d put my money on Apple.
On the glass of the iPad, in the Apple Case, sitting on and angle, I can type about 25-40 words per minute, but if I attach a BT Keyboard I go up to 80-90 words per minute. I agree if I am responding 1 – 4 sentence emails the iPad works great, but if I am writing the next 2-3 page email, the laptop is coming out. I disagree on the boot time, but then again I just sleep my computers. My MBP and Win7 both wake in under 10 seconds. The iPad assuming you sleep is almost instant on.
I will agree for browsing the web, reading RSS, or games for the kids it is great. You could not have said it better this is a device that is not for everything or everyone. I have tried books but always go back to my Kindle as it is the perfect reading experience for me (weight, e-Ink, no backlight), but for a non Kindle owner it removes the heave Steven King Over the Dome type books.
I think Android is challenging Apple today on the iPhone. It is unbelievable that rate at which Android devices are hitting the market and the % of market share they are grabbing. I agree Apple provides a polish Google just cannot match, just consider how favorites are handled.
I like Apple, I site here typing on a MBP with an iPad and Magic Mouse next to me, but I can do without the political war that impacts my experience (Adobe). More important I do have concern over one persons morals dictating what makes it on the device. I am not a fan of fart apps yet the store has a boat load of them and I am not bothered in the least. This is not about porn rather about censorship. I know several developers that stopped projects over concerns over app store policy and approval process.
I don’t see the iPad replacing anything I have today but in 10 yrs a dock-able tablet is not a far fetched idea. Heck a dock-able mobile phone
I like the idea of a instant on mobile device that does 80% – 90% of what my laptop/desktop/netbook does. I realize that there are apps available for the ipad and will be for the next device that comes out, but what bothers me in the whole equation is I have to pay again for programs/apps I’ve bought for my PC device just to be able to edit a doc or excel file. Give me a cross platform license for the major programs (Not fart makers) and I’d jump on the bandwagon tomorrow.
I see a future device that’s small and lightweight (Iphone or Storm size) with a secondary screen that will unroll or unfold to make a bigger screen for watching movies (do a search for: Philips READIUS).
Thanks for reading.
Sr
Apple wins with polish. Nothing new but very polished at the expense of openess. Hell you can’t even change the battery without going back to Apple.
I find it very amusing no one even mentions Microsoft or RIM these days in this market space.
RIM is king of business efficiency polish – but innovation they are not. They are still more of a pager than a nextgen HTC evo or 4g iphone. They simply don’t have what it takes to really play in the consumer market where the bulk of Apple sales come from rather than the business market.
However, google/htc play well in both. If they came out with a polished ipad type device or two (maybe one with keyboard and one without) I have no doubt they have the potential to really hurt Apple and RIMs marketshare. Here you have devices which will cross platforms and make the OS really only important in servers and high end apps. The bulk of people like email,inet,music,video,books and games. Businesses are a bit more demanding with customized solutions and applications dependant upon an employees job function.
Have Google make deals with news sources, books, music vendors and maybe buy hulu and then it can do the majority of what people desire on an android phone, tablet, pc browser, or tv. They own the cloud. Apple owns some very closed hardware, Microsoft outdated lead weight OSes / confusion of Server SOFTWARE and unnecessary now MSoffice.
RIM has best email device. Most everything else sucks, is a commodity, or doesn’t exist on their devices/outdated pager OS.
But the real value is ubiquitous computing and the cloud. Pushing and pulling content from the cloud that is valuable to you/your company/your customers on and being able to utilize it anywhere on any device that is yours or accessible to you and secure. A company that delivers that wins. Hands down. Apple can’t deliver that to the bulk of the PC community. Microsoft can’t to the bulk of the mobile community. RIM is a niche player fading fast as technology and the cloud pass them by. Google – they get it. They to many are the cloud. They sit on the PC and can be used to outsource 75 percent or so of an IT dept. Gmail is everywhere a device is. Now it coming to TVs and tablets. Same is true with their office documents, videos, control of the searches people do, and even maps. Its really not a matter of IF just when – they even are rolling out broadband and have airwave space – and they still have the cool factor.
Not many can compete with that, if any. Btw seen the new Sprint HTC evo running android? Dang thing is faster than my cable modem. If it only had RIMs keyboard.
Mbnva