The Roman Empire was not built in a day.

The same can be said for Research in Motion when it was on top, Apple and iOS when the iPhone reached number one, and, Android now that it is top dog.  It took years for each of these platforms to best their competition and become the number one selling smartphone operating system.

I know that there is a lot of excitement and anticipation surrounding the release of BlackBerry 10 in Q1 next year, however, I have to admit that I am hearing some pretty lofty goals from die-hard BlackBerry fans that, even if BlackBerry 10 is to Android and iOS what Android and iOS are to the current BlackBerry OS, simply have no chance of coming true…

To make it plain, BlackBerry 10 will not take out iOS, Android, or Windows Phone no matter how good it is.  BlackBerry 10 has no shot at besting the iPhone or Android and will have it’s hands full competing with Windows Phone for 3rd place.

The BlackBerry is currently in 3rd place for U.S. smartphone market share, but, will soon slip to fourth place behind Windows Phone.  I believe that the best that RIM could hope for is getting back in front of Microsoft with BlackBerry 10, which, by the time BlackBerry 10 devices become available, will be a difficult task.

I plan on getting a BlackBerry 10 device as soon as they are available in the U.S. and hope that it will be the best mobile operating system available when it comes out.  If, however, I had to call it I would say that whatever position RIM is in when BlackBerry 10 becomes available will be the position it will remain in until whatever comes after BlackBerry 10 is released.

BlackBerry 10 may be able to legitimately compete with Windows Phone for third place, but, thinking it is going to get in front of the iPhone or Android…  well, that is more than wishful thinking…

Do you think that BlackBerry 10 can compete for more than third place?  We’d love read your thoughts in the comments.