According to Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron, Research in Motion will sell 3.3 million BlackBerry PlayBook devices in the first year that the device is on the market:

  • RIM will sell 100,000 PlayBook units in the fiscal fourth quarter ending Feb. 28.
  • For fiscal 2012—a year from February—RIM will have sold 3.2 million units at an average selling price of $540.
  • Add it up and you’ll have 3.3 million PlayBook units in the market.

If executed properly, the PlayBook could help RIM defend its enterprise leadership against intensifying competition from Apple, Android and WP7. With that said, much uncertainty remains and we’re not convinced RIM has successfully addressed its competitive smartphone gaps.

Much of this analysis is based on the enterprise taking a liking to the PlayBook.  I believe that in order to hit that number sales to consumers must be very strong as well, but, that $540 price tag is a bit concerning…