RIM has been able to get by with their old release strategy largely in part because Verizon subscribers generally don’t switch carriers. RIM knows that even if a CDMA BlackBerry is released on Verizon a year after it it first released on a GSM carriers that there will be Verizon subscribers eagerly awaiting its launch.

Although I don’t agree with this strategy I can see some of the benefits of it from RIM’s perspective… The main benefit being that it allows RIM to capture lightening in a bottle twice. If a new GSM BlackBerry is a big hit you can pretty much be sure that the CDMA version will hit big as well. The problem, however, with this strategy is that your biggest GSM carrier becomes the flag ship carrier for the the hottest mobile device, well…ever and that device is not named BlackBerry.

In case you haven’t been keeping up with the news lately, Apple released a little mobile device called the iPhone 3G not quite a month ago and most reports indicate that it it is the fastest selling mobile device in history. It just so happens that not only is AT&T the flag ship carrier for the iPhone, but, they are the exclusive carrier for the iPhone in the United States.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, however, I don’t believe that it is just a coincidence that AT&T is experiencing huge success with the iPhone 3G and the BlackBerry Bold, which was supposed to makes it’s debut last month is probably not coming out until next month or later. AT&T, being the sole carrier of the iPhone in the U.S., has a strong desire to sell as many iPhones as they can. This is not to say that they don’t want to sell as many BlackBerrys as they can, however, I believe that they are going to focus their efforts on what is hot right now.

This is a problem for RIM because GSM BlackBerrys, with the exception of the upcoming BlackBerry Thunder, always come out significantly before their CDMA counterparts. If AT&T isn’t all gung-ho about releasing a new device, this poses a problem for RIM because T-Mobile just isn’t big enough to be the primary GSM provider in the U.S.

To make a long story short, I’d be willing to bet that the BlackBerry Thunder will be the first of several new devices to come out in a CDMA variant first.

It is probably safe to call the $73 million that Sprint was ordered a drop in the bucket if the ruling stands. Sprint has two weeks to respond to the judgement. What may be worse for Sprint than the $73 million is the rejection of Sprint’s argument that federal law pre-empts California law which means that more states may come after Sprint individually as compared to one big federal case which may come as well.

[Source]

Verizon also dropped its industry leading churn rate down to 1.12% down from 1.3% last year. I am going to go out on a limb and say that churn will rise modestly in Q3 as AT&T just released the iPhone 3G at a very attractive price point.

This is two quarters in a row that Verizon has made more money than AT&T so apparently, being the biggest doesn’t necessarily mean that you are the best.

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Rumors about a burnt orange BlackBerry Curve from T-Mobile called the BlackBerry Curve Sunset have been floating around for some time now. It was initially believed that the BlackBerry Curve Sunset was supposed to be released today, July 28th, however, some conflicting reports have the device coming out in a week on August 4th.

I’ve heard that some T-Mobile store employees have stated that they have the BlackBerry Curve Sunset is in stock in the stores but I have to wonder why the device wouldn’t be available at the start of business is it is indeed going to be available for sale today.

One thing we know for sure is that time will definitely tell.

According to BlackBerry News, BlackBerry Bold seed stock has started to float around. The Bold hasn’t appeared in the AT&T system which is one of the reasons we believe that the the device is still over 30 days away, however, we should start seeing folks other than RIM execs and celebrities with BlackBerry Bolds out in the wild.

[Source]

We know that there are consumers who either just don’t want an iPhone, or, are on some carrier other than AT&T and aren’t going to switch so that they could get an iPhone, but, all the iPhone buzz makes them want to get a new device too. My guess is that carriers other than AT&T are already starting to realize these consumers and it won’t be long before AT&T starts to notice them as well.

The big question for me is if the BlackBerry Bold will be out in time to realize these benefits of the iPhone buzz. We know that BlackBerry users overwhelmingly won’t be lured by the iPhone and will wait on the BlackBerry Bold no matter how long it takes for it to come out. I am wondering, however, if RIM and AT&T will release the Bold in time enough to capture the attention of the smartphone consumer with no allegiance that would actually compare multiple devices and weigh the pros and cons of each that initially came into the store to look at the iPhone 3G.

This worked for RIM last year with the BlackBerry Curve. Do you think that it will work again this year with the BlackBerry Bold?

 
The iPhone 3G ships today. Are you getting one?

Well, today we are hearing rumors that the new Nextel BlackBerry will indeed be a BlackBerry Curve, carrier the model number BlackBerry 8350, and support Wi-Fi 802.11 b and g. We are also hearing that the new Nextel BlackBerry Curve will run BB OS 4.6.1 and be the first Nextel BlackBerry to come without an external antenna.

 
Those who follow BlackBerry launches closely probably have already guessed that the BlackBerry Javelin would be coming out on T-Mobile. It doesn’t really make sense for AT&T to release a 3G BlackBerry Bold only to launch a 2G BlackBerry Javelin months later. Additionally, T-Mobile tends to get Wi-Fi enabled BlackBerrys first because they fit in nicely with T-Mobile @Home.

It is, however, the recent API that all but definitively confirms that the BlackBerry Javelin is coming out on T-Mobile. The recent BlackBerry Javelin API includes T-Mobile WLAN error codes. I don’t imagine that RIM would code that elaborate of a bone to throw those speculating what carrier will get the Javelin off of the trail.

[Via BlackBerryNews.com]

It doesn’t look like these issues are affecting releases of the BlackBerry Bold up in Canada seeing how Rogers has already sent out BlackBerry Bold Launch Party invitations. AT&T hasn’t even certified the BlackBerry Bold so it is going to be a while before it comes out down here.

Research in Motion hasn’t set an official date for the release of the BlackBerry Bold on AT&T so I doubt that they will say that they’ve pushed it back on todays earnings call. I would be will to bet, however, that someone is going to ask about it so it will be interesting to hear what they will say.