Forrester Research telecom analyst Ellen Daley thinks theres about a 60 percent chance an injunction will be issued. Even if that is true in my opinion there is a 0 percent chance that BlackBerry gets shut down. In fact, I would be willing bet all the loose change that you could find in the various sofas, love seats, and recliner chairs in my house that your BlackBerry service won’t miss a beat.
Lets look at the worse case scenario for Research in Motion. An injunction is imposed today, the last four NTP patents are upheld on final review, and NTP wins their appeal (which we are sure they will soon file) on the first patent that was ruled invalid on final review Wednesday. All that RIM would have to do to make all this go away is the same thing that could have done years ago to make this go away. Pay NTP some incredibly large sum of money to settle.
A BlackBerry shutdown benefits no one. All NTP wants is to get paid and they know that in order for them to get paid, Research in Motion must continue to get paid. If RIM gets shutdown, NTP doesn’t get a check in the mail every quarter so they are just as much against an actual shutdown as RIM is.